Dan’s Blog

In Real Terms

Dan Calandro - Sunday, April 29, 2012
Every time I write one of these blogs I try to talk in real terms.  In other words – I always try to keep it real.  But today I am going to talk in Real terms – that is, adjusted for inflation. Inflation, you may recall from my book, is not growth but a general rise in prices. When you hear "experts" speak in Real terms, they are referring to numbers adjusted for inflation. In this blog, my goal is to give you the Real story when it comes to today’s Market and its according activity.  

The U.S. Department of Commerce released its first estimate of 1st Quarter 2012 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and they’re not good. Let’s first remember that rarely do these first estimates ever hold true in the final analysis. So take these early releases for what they truly are: early indications. Especially early first quarter releases, which are annualized by multiplying by a factor of four, and needless to say, a difficult assumption in uncertain economic times like these.  

However, these first estimates annualized growth to be a dismal 3.7% in Nominal terms (before inflation) and a pathetic 2.2% in Real terms. The difference between the two is the Bureau’s estimate for inflation: 1.7%. In other words, inflation is responsible for 46% of Nominal performance based on the most recent estimate.  

One of the goals for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is to indicate total market activity using a strategically designed portfolio of publicly traded stocks. It consistently does so reliably (shown below), and since it’s not adjusted for inflation, it’s a Nominal indicator of market activity – not a Real one.  
 
4-27-12a

During this five-plus year timeframe the Dow gained 22%, and 71% of that 22% – or 15 of the 22% point gain – was produced by inflation (a rise in prices) not economic growth. That’s why the Dow should be considered over-valued here – its being driven predominantly by inflation instead of growth.  

The Dow should only outperform Nominal GDP during times of economic expansion – a.k.a. Real growth. But the free-market is contributing less to economic output than ever before and GDP is inflated with reckless government spending and borrowing. That’s not growth. That’s inflating a recessionary market. It’s hype. It’s not Real.      

4-27-12b

These kinds of dynamics, inflationary stock market valuations during recessionary economic conditions, are a ripe condition for correction. Stock market inflation can be seen quite clearly from the 15-51 Indicator’s recent performance (see below).

4-27-12c

During times of uncertainty, many baseline investment fundamentals migrate to the norm – a.k.a. the average, as indicted by the DJIA. That’s why the Dow and gold are hovering around the market average (GDP) trend-line, as shown in the above charts.    

The 15-51 Indicator is better than average. That’s why it consistently outperforms to the upside and that’s also why you can see inflation easier and signs of correction sooner. In inflated markets, above-average portfolios will inflate more than average ones. During contraction, the 15-51 Indicator should produce a steeper correction followed by a steeper recovery. That’s just the way above-average portfolios perform in inflationary and recessionary conditions. Perhaps this can be seen more clearly in a longer term view.  

4-27-12d

Stock market inflation is blatantly seen in the 15-51 Indicator’s performance shown above. It’s already showing signs of correction – and it should!  Like the whole Market, it’s really inflated and over-valued. If fact, should the aforementioned fundamentals hold true and 71% of the Indicator’s gain is simply inflationary, upon correction it should trade between 35,000 and 40,000 (it closed April 27, 2012 at 65,000), or 20,500 Dow points.  

So far year this year the market (GDP) is up 2.2% in Real terms; after inflation "the market" is up three times that, gaining 6.6% this year; and the 15-51 Indicator is up an amazing 33.5% year-to-date - that’s 31.8% in Real terms.  

Above-average construction makes it easier to buy low and sell high – becasue that's how you make money - in Real terms. 
 

3 Pointer

Dan Calandro - Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Mitt Romney all but ended the Republican Party primary yesterday by sweeping all east and northeast venues. Today he finds himself to be the lucky man to jump into the ring against heavyweight champion Barak Obama in a battle for the next four years. Governments control markets (read chapter 2 of my book for more info)- which makes elections huge "market indicators" and extremely helpful in determining the future course of Markets and Investment. Congratulations to Romney.  

This comes at a time where the International Monetary Fund (IMF) demanded another $400 billion to "secure global financial stability and put the world economic recovery on a sounder footing," said IMF chief Christine Lagarde1

Absent from the list of donors was the United States of America. That’s point number one: the U.S. is reducing its commitment to the IMF.  

This occurred while U.S. Treasure Secretary Tim Geithner encouraged the European Central Bank (ECB) to take more aggressive action to settle the crisis that continues to plague the region. Geithner told the IMF, "The success of the next phase of crisis response will hinge on Europe’s willingness and ability, together with the European Central Bank, to apply its tools and processes creatively, flexibly and aggressively to support countries as they implement reforms and stay ahead of markets."2

As part of the IMF’s new capital raise, it has agreed to structural changes to its future governing structure, where emerging markets and strong donors will gain more say in where and how contributed funds will be spread throughout the world. These votes of power will come at the expense of Euro Zone countries, which are expected to lose two of their eight seats, or 25% of their governing weight.  

That’s point number two: Euro-Zone countries are losing power in the IMF.

This comes at the same time that the French people are taking to the polls to determine if current President Nicolas Sarkozy deserves another term in office. If not, Sarkozy will be the first French President not to win a second term in more than three decades.-- And he’s in some real trouble over there. So much so, Sarkozy breached an important European pledge not to insert ECB politics into country campaigns, by promising that if elected he would ‘lobby for a more activist ECB’3.   

Okay, so what does this mean?  

First, the world currency crisis is alive and well. Second, and since debt is only borrowed currency, if there’s a currency crisis somewhere then there’s also a debt crisis somewhere.  And third, we all know where the problem is: in Europe and the United States – and both are distancing themselves from the IMF.  

Right now both currencies (the U.S. dollar and the Euro) greatly impact world markets, and both are weakening world currencies by massively over-spending and over-borrowing. Lest we not forget that America is at least 100% leveraged right now, sporting a $15 trillion debt-load on top of a $15 trillion economy – this to go along with massive European debt loads.

By moving away from the IMF, large scale IMF contributors – China, Russia, and India, move into the driver’s seat to manage that currency fund. Perhaps this may someday lead to the creation of a third world currency, an IMF dollar, and perhaps travel on a completely different course than the American and European bond.  Who knows for sure.  

But what we do know for certain is that a currency crisis is going on right now, a government spending crisis is going on right now, and a debt crisis is spreading throughout the world today – during an important election year. This makes for a hostile stock market ahead.

Why? 

These lessons can easily be learned in the over-spent and over-borrowed Spanish Market, which at last look tallied 154% in debt – or in other words, more than twice the prudent amount. So what do governments do when caught in the quagmire of lost hope and diseconomies of scale?   

They finally cut budgets and with dramatic fashion. After many false promises and failed attempts at austerity, the Spanish government recently slashed healthcare and education spending amid a contracting economy (-.4% in the 1st quarter 2012). Their condition will only get worse when inflation, caused by persistently irresponsible monetary and fiscal policies, will raise their cost of debt – a.k.a. interest rates. This will only put more strain on fragile economies like theirs and world currencies.(Gold should continue a long-term upward trend because of it.)

Like so many in Europe, and soon America, Spain must come to terms that it can’t afford itself and change its operating model. Spending cuts alone can’t fix it – and it’s mathematically impossible to do so with worldwide currency games and debt-load charades. Growth, which begins with investment capital, is greatly required to begin fixing the problem. 

And that begins with more freedom – not more ECB debt. That’s point number 3: Markets remain under hostile condition, surrounded by weak currencies and great uncertainty about their future course.  

That said, expect more volatility from here and throughout the election cycle that will define Market governance, and therefore Market condition, for the next four years.

Stay tuned…  

Get Ready

Dan Calandro - Sunday, April 22, 2012

As I mentioned in LOSE YOUR BROKER NOT YOUR MONEY, I get my information from a lot of different sources. Gathered from all different kinds of news services, I prepare these blogs for independent financial managers and discuss what they should be keeping their eyes on from the view of an independent investor.  Though I do pay for some information, most comes from free sources like the BEA. I do this to prove that massive amounts of money and time aren’t required to gather the required information to achieve financial success and independence – especially if you are using this website and reading these blogs.  

Lose Your Broker strives to become the perennial source of information provided to independent investors. It is with that mission that I caution you against taking investment advice from a currently overzealous news media and Wall Street establishment.  

Mass media has become more about Romney beating Obama than about rational market commentary. The political impact on stocks is at all-time highs and will certainly correct after much more volatility. Get used to it – it’s going to be a rocky road until way after the November elections. Prepare now.  

Here is how major market activity looks year-to-date:

4-20-12-a

The above-average 15-51 Indicator is leading the way up and to correction. That’s what happens in up markets – above-average portfolios outperform average ones. And that’s what is happening right now. Strength is outperforming as proven by the 15-51i’s 29% gain compared to the Dow's 7% return and to gold’s 5% advance.  

And the same is true for the last twelve months.  

4-2-12b

Gold hit its annual high in August 2011 -- one month before the Dow hit its low for the year. Gold is down 13% since reaching that high. The Dow peaked during the week of March 15, 2012 and is off just 2% from there; while the 15-51 strength Indicator peaked on one month later on April 5, 2012, and is off 6% since.  

All indications point to lower and more volatile stock market valuations. The same is true even when taking a step back. From the 2009 lows the picture looks like this.  

4-20-12c

The 15-51 strength Indicator is up 285% while the Dow and gold have advanced just around 80%. That means strength is more over-valued than the Average is right now – it has more room to correct – and that is why it is behaving like it is. We’re due for a correction and stock market strength is indicating it before anything else. That gives you plenty of time to get out at high valuations.  

Get ready.  

And stay tuned...

Trading Your Luck

Dan Calandro - Wednesday, April 18, 2012

There was a lot of speculation about currency trading early today and it prompted me to write this blog. First a clarification, the goal of "trading" is to make money on short-term trends. It’s completely different from investing. Trading is short-term; investing is long-term. The former is speculative and the latter is logical. As such, traders are not investors – they’re gamblers.  

Always consider the source of the information you use.  

Investors can actively trade, of course – but those aren’t traders. Investors that trade often usually do so with "Vegas Money," a small portion of their total assets, which besides making money, are looking for the thrill one derives from the act of gambling. 

Traders are those who trade all the time to earn their daily bread. These people, regardless of education pedigree, are gamblers through-and-through and no different than the crap shooter living his life in front of a table at the Bellagio. 

This is not to say that gambling is a bad thing. How to make money is a personal choice. However, gambling is not the Lose Your Broker perspective. These blogs are from the view of a long-term investor providing information to like-minded independent investors. To us, short-term movements are for informational purposes only. Placing bets on their direction is not in our deck of cards.

Instead, I use the speculation surrounding recent currency movements as an illustration of the difference between trading and investing, and to provide caution to investors currently under the thumb of slick Wall Street brokers.  

Today a falling Euro and a rising U.S. dollar got currency traders microphones and bright lights. Traders (those betting on where the next blip on the radar screen might appear) tried to transform recent currency movements into important new news, that recent market moves point to changes in long-term condition, and that now may be a time to bet on currencies – whether to buy the Euro low, short the Euro lower, or to bet the U.S. dollar higher because of the Euro-Zone’s weakness. Regardless of the position, none is better than pure speculation and a gamble at best.  

What traders fail to realize or convey in their position is the significant role central governance has in the currency markets. Currency markets are far from free-markets, as central governments control money supply and rarely disclose what they are actually doing to affect the currency Markets. For instance, the U.S. Federal Reserve continually trades currency with the European central bank. Why?  

To purposely affect the direction of their currency markets. They do so to stabilize currencies between allies, and therefore, to stabilize international trade among friendly trading partners. And to the contrary, the Fed will also engage in actions intended to impair other central banks with hostile positions toward the U.S., European allies, and other friendly trading partners.  

Bottom line: central banks rarely tell "the market" half of anything that they're doing to affect the currency market – including the U.S. Federal Reserve, which has no Congressional oversight and cannot be audited. This alone makes currency trading more of a gamble than anything else.  

This, of course, is not to mention that betting on currencies during a worldwide currency crisis is like running into a burning building with clothes drenched in gasoline. This makes the gambler nothing short of high-risk high-stakes player. 

Why do I bring this up?

Because the reason most investors entertain trading accounts or high-risk mutual funds that trade currencies and the like is because their overall portfolio performance stinks. It’s poorly constructed and consistently fails to produce "market returns" (even in substantially upward moving markets like this one) and so Wall Street uses its lackluster performance record to convince investors that more risk is required – perhaps in currencies – for which they have "great products" run by "great fund managers."    

Don’t fall into this trap.  

Mistaking short-term trading opinions as long-term investment opportunities – for any asset class – is like taking medical advice from a pill junky. You better get lucky. 

Successful investment requires no such risk and no such luck. So why trade into it?  

Stay tuned…

Back to the Big-Top

Dan Calandro - Sunday, April 15, 2012

Stocks closed last week with their worst trading performance so far this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.6 % and the 15-51 Indicator dropped 3.3%. "The market" continues to rattle around the top of its action zone range amid the same old story.  

Spain saw its cost of debt increase swiftly – a sign of weakness and high-risk – because her unemployment rate continues to skyrocket inside a shrinking economy. China’s economic growth continued to slow last quarter, and while 8.1% growth sounds good to most, it represents China’s slowest growth rate in more than three years.  And then, of course, there are continued escalations of hostilities in oil’s fertile ground in the Middle East. 

The overseas picture is an ugly one.   

Here at home further weakness was revealed by the employment numbers posted by the U.S. Department of Labor. Only 120,000 jobs were added to non-farm payrolls in March – half the pace economists had projected, and half the pace of February. That’s not good – especially when you take into consideration that early profit reporters Google, Wells Fargo, and JP Morgan Chase all beat expectations.  

When you hear media pundits and Wall Street analysts claim that the stock market will continue its rise and "not correct" because corporations are generating more profits remember that they’re not hiring people with that money. Unemployed workers are unemployed consumers – the drivers of economic growth and vitality. Their weakness is Market weakness.  

While long-term investors shouldn’t get caught up in one number, one moment, or one month, every piece should be factored into a long term perspective. If done so, investment trends make perfect sense. 

Since 2007 when the last boom began to bust the Dow Jones Industrial Average has failed to keep pace with the market economy (GDP), indicating a continued and prolonged recession. To many of us, this person included, it has felt exactly like that (recession.) Yet the DJIA is up 5.2% despite the most recent sell-off (that’s inflationary).

During times like these, with fragile world markets and massive currency vulnerabilities, gold often, if not always, rises.  It does so swiftly during crisis conditions, which can be seen quite clearly in the aftermath of the 2008 crash (see chart below.) 

2007-4-13-12


The questions media pundits and "market experts" are throwing around the airwaves right now are:  Is the gold run over, is the economy recovered, and is the Dow headed to 14,000 – or even 17,000?  

Let me first say quickly, the Dow will fall below 9,000 long before it reaches 17,000.  In other words, don’t worry about missing the run to 17,000 before you enjoy the opportunity of buying below 9,000.  

The only way a prudent investor could answer yes to all three of the above questions is if the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s trend-line was that of the 15-51 Indicator’s in the chart shown above.  Instead, the Dow Average is far below, representing a stable and accurate portrayal of downward market activity (that’s recessionary), proven by its close tracking to GDP.

In times of economic recovery and expansion, backed by strong currencies and U.S. dollars, the DJIA will greatly outperform gold and GDP.  The 15-51 Indicator will, of course, outperform them all.  But that’s not the picture above.  

Stocks, here, are greatly over-valued in real terms (that is, adjusted for inflation.) That’s a condition ripe for a correction – not Dow 17,000.  

It’s time to send the clown advising you back to the Big-Top and take matters into your own hands and begin outperforming the 15-51 Indicator (which is up 33% so far this year.) It’s the best way to make money on money.

And let me know if you need help

LYB-Cover-NEW

No Good News is Bad News

Dan Calandro - Wednesday, April 11, 2012

"The market" rattled around the past several days which is quite common for over-valued markets. The shake-up came on the heels of renewed fears that the Euro-Zone is in deeper trouble than the "experts" previously thought. During those down days goods news, like today’s misinterpretation of Beige Book data, was missing. Without a "good news" distraction The Street was forced to reevaluate the reality that surrounds it.  Stocks sold off accordingly (-3.3%) before recovering a small piece of it today (89 points or .7%) one the Beige Book nonsense.    

Taking a longer view, the Dow is up 3.6% in the most recent twelve months, gold advanced 12.1%, and the above-average 15-51 strength Indicator gained 45.7% -- 12 times better than the market Average. Here’s the picture.

4-11-12


The interesting dynamic to note here is gold’s movement as compared to stocks. Both the DJIA and the 15-51i experienced a small selloff in the past few days. Gold experienced an opposing gain. This contradictory dynamic, which is more evident in August/September of last year, should continue to repeat itself during the next correction.  

In hostile markets like these, stock market sell-offs cause upward movements in gold. That’s why you want a gold allocation – to make money when the stock market goes down.  

Bond allocations usually serve this purpose and dynamic – but with a weak currency that keeps getting weaker, near zero interest rates, and a fragile underlying economy, bonds have little upside. Bonds are only borrowed money and money right now is weak and cheap. Interest rates can only rise from here which will cause bond values to fall.  This makes bonds high risk and gold the prudent hedge to stock market and cash allocations.  

Stay tuned – good news or bad…

The Political Impact on Stocks

Dan Calandro - Saturday, April 07, 2012

When you look around and follow the news and read these blogs you know the status of stock prices today – whether they are high or low and whether it is an appropriate time to buy, sell, or hold. You should also know which asset classes you should own and how much of each is appropriate for you. These are all things the Wall Street establishment has convinced the average investor that they can’t understand or determine on their own – because it’s "too complicated" for the mere mortal to ascertain.  

As demonstrated in these blogs, that’s totally bogus. These blogs, which are based on the concepts outlined and defined in my book, LOSE YOUR BROKER NOT YOUR MONEY, prove that independent investing is the best avenue to achieve financial success and independence. (Reviews)

The 15-51 Indicator is living proof that strength is indeed in numbers – smaller numbers to be exact – and that it’s easy to outperform professional fund managers and the market averages with simplicity and superior 15-51 construction.  

While this important, for sure, successful portfolio management requires an unbiased view of "the Market."  Politics and political correctness can easily skew reality and prompt investors into making poor decisions – like buying high and selling low.  This blog area commentary is directed strictly from the free-market perspective to benefit independent investors – one that acknowledges the critical significance world politics inflict upon marketable investments – but cares little about establishment politics, be it government, media, or Wall Street propaganda. 

In a nutshell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rattled lower this week because Wall Street is antsy because "the market" is at the top of its action zone, Europe is getting worse, Asia is slipping further into recession, and with oil prices already at $110 a barrel, the possibility of another Middle East eruption with Iran further threatens fragile Western markets. Consider this most recent Dow retreat a mere warning to make your defensive investment moves if you already haven’t done so. More volatility is on the way, sure to be followed by a major correction.

Why?

Because President Obama’s policies have failed to meet the Hope and Change promised in his first presidential campaign.  His approval numbers are slipping and his recent action against the Supreme Court has disturbed many independents.  Some now are considering Romney as a viable alternative that may have a chance to win – and that maybe better times might be coming. That speculation, along with a blind eye to negative Market fundamentals, has driven stock market valuations to pie-in-the-sky levels.  

I caution you to not get caught up in the hype.

Remember, the mid-pint of the DJIA’s action zone is 11,342. It should be trading below that right now because the free-market is in recession. Yet the Dow closed the week around 13,000, while the 15-51 Indicator (also over-valued) closed at whopping 66,798. It should really be trading around 40,000.

4-5-12a

Stock market valuations are currently built on pure speculation and greatly affected by current government, media, and Wall Street propaganda. In other words, valuations are up this high for political reasons – not because Market fundamentals have changed to a positive direction.

Everyone knows that the government cannot keep spending at these levels. Limited government spending will bring about the realization of a recession, as can be seen currently throughout Europe and Spain specifically, and for that reason this stock market will sell-off upon this epiphany – because that’s what stock markets do. They inflate and deflate all the time. If you’re ready for them they’re not so bad to experience and easy to profit from. Capitalizing on these events is what investors should be planning right now.  

Independent investors must realize the politics in stock market valuations and not make the mistake of getting caught up in them.  After all, in the face of more than one hundred bank failures the Dow Jones Industrial Average ran up to 14,100 exactly one year before the entire financial industry collapsed. Fundamentals had nothing to do with that valuation.

The same is true here.  

Be careful, stay tuned, and let me know if you want to talk.  

PS: This is my 100th Blog! -- who said it wouldn't last?

Fixing the Market: Raising Capital

Dan Calandro - Tuesday, April 03, 2012

Many of us forget that a global competition for profit begins with a global competition for investment capital – a.k.a. a global competition for money.  

Investment capital is the fuel for economic growth and prosperity. It creates jobs, raises wages and standards of living.  It is the solution to poverty, unemployment, and stagnant economies. Needless to say, countries with the most competitive capital policies tend to raise the most money and enjoy most the fruits that it produces.  

So how do governments go about attracting capital to grow their economies and facilitate prosperity for their constituency?  

Three ways.  

Incentives

The purpose of all investment is to make money with money commensurate with the associated risks.  In other words, investors don’t invest willy-nilly but with specific purpose, aimed at markets with the greatest potential and the best possibilities of success.  

Taxes reduce business profits and make it harder for investors to earn returns on their investments (ROI).  America currently has the highest corporate tax rate on earth and current central governance is campaigning to increase it.  That’s not competitive.  

Lower tax rates are an incentive to take-on additional risks.  Simply put, investors looking to maximize profits find little reason to place investments that aren’t worth the risks.  Investors are looking to get richer first and foremost – and most don’t mind paying a government tax to support a stable market environment. Taxes are the price of success, indeed – but it must be at competitive rates or they will lose the competition and fall behind.  

During high risk times and stagnant markets low tax rates are a great incentive to get skeptical businesses and investors to place capital at risk to expand enterprise.  That’s what America needs right now.  

Encouragement

A country that cannot raise enough capital to expand industry to a point that produces an acceptable unemployment rate has somehow discouraged investment.  For the last ten or fifteen years the U.S. government has added tens of thousands of pages of laws and regulations to the code – from No Child Left Behind to Sarbanes-Oxley, from HARP to TARP, and ObamaCare to Dodd-Frank – there’s too much junk clogging the system to produce vibrant economic growth.  

Regulatory burdens make it more difficult and more expensive for businesses to operate and generate profits – a.k.a. returns on investment.  This limits employment opportunities and economic potential. Investors don’t like this much, needless to say, and therefore shy away from markets that are regulatory nightmares.

In a nutshell, the harder it is to make money the less investors are willing to invest.  Make it easier for businesses to make money and investors will invest more money in those businesses – especially if they also have incentives to invest (i.e. lower capital gains taxes.)   

Easing regulatory burdens is a great way to encourage businesses and investors to place additional capital at risk to expand markets.

Empowerment

Though it is true that enterprise suffers with higher taxes and regulatory burdens no one suffers more than workers and the unemployed – consumers one and all.  In order to revitalize a market a country must rejuvenate its consumer base.  

Lackluster economic condition creates dependency on government – the polar opposite of the American ideal.  Government programs like unemployment pay consumers very little, many times just a fraction of what they once earned, which constrains a market and its potential.  This is a dreadful market condition because it is consumers that provide businesses with profits and investors with returns on investment, which is included in the prices that they pay for goods in retail markets. 

For this reason, a vibrant consumer base and spending pattern is a required element in attracting investment capital. For decades on end Japan, a culture of savers, lay economically stagnant and unable to attract investment capital or lend money with 0% interest rates because its consumers wouldn’t consume.  Consumers, not government, must spend an economy to prosperity. (Ask the Japanese – who by the way have just lowered their corporate tax rates leaving American alone at the top of the list.)

Nothing empowers consumers to do this more than returning to work, increased wages and the long-term prospects of career growth and opportunity. Consumers too are driven by profit and potential. They too need incentive and encouragement.  But their greatest asset is something that government cannot provide. It is their ambition for success and financial independence -- the American Dream.  

And nothing raises capital like it.  


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