Dan’s Blog

Deja Vu All Over Again

Dan Calandro - Tuesday, November 01, 2011

The northeast got slammed again this year. This storm, which arrived with little hype, packed one hell-of-a punch.   From my vantage point, this is worse than Irene.  The damage here in the northeast is extensive.   Many areas will be out of power for a week or more, for a second time this year.  

What can we learn from this?

Well, as mentioned in my last blog, "the market" was overhyped. Third quarter economic growth could initially look bold, at 2.5%.   But Hurricane Irene was in that number.   Consumers spend more money during times like these (i.e. batteries, bottled water, paper goods, gas, etc. etc.) that lifts economic output (GDP) beyond normal.   Many people (like me) dip into savings to pay the extra cost of survival during times like these.  

Hurricane Irene clouded third quarter results just as this storm (I hear they call it "Alfred") will distort fourth quarter numbers.   Remember this note.

At 12,200, the Dow is ripe for trading.   Short sellers are making a king’s ransom every time the Dow enters into this overvalued territory.   This is a reoccurring theme.   Expect to see more if it until the mess really hits the fan. What mess, you ask?

Today, here is the most telling WSJ storyline:

            Greek Plan Vote Threatens Government

Add to this the "fragile" government in Italy and what you have is a disaster waiting to happen in Europe.  And we are all connected. There is no way to avoid it.  After all, we are making the same mistakes as our European cousins.  Why should they fall into crisis and not us?

Remember, starting in February 2007 and continuing all the way until the fall of 2008, the stock market was speculating whether or not the "financial crisis" was isolated to a few banks or if it was a widespread industry problem.  

Now we know the facts and what happened.    

Today we’re wondering if the world’s problems are isolated to a few countries (Greece, Italy, Portugal, or Spain) or if it’s all of Europe, and if so, how does it impact the global currency crisis picture.  

None of this is any good.

Keep your eyes open and cross-reference the underlined bogs for more info.   I don’t know when I’ll be able to return to the blogosphere.   

PS: Honda generators – you gotta love them!  Strong.


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