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Is Gold Dust?

May 20, 2013

Japan bucked the trend of bleak news this week by reporting GDP growth of 3.5% for the first quarter. While three-and-a-half percent growth cannot be considered a boom, it might feel like one in Japan. Their economy has never really recovered from the tsunami, and until this welcomed first quarter news, has contracted for six consecutive months.

New Prime Minster Shinzo Abe won election on an easy money platform. He advocated that QE would make their currency more competitive in the global market and kick start their economy mired in recession. And he didn’t waste any time. Early this year Japan announced that they were jumping into the quantitative easing (QE) game.

As mentioned in On the Horizon, the debasing of the Japanese Yen caused the price of gold to rise there. This prompted many Japanese to cash-in their gold and buy things that they otherwise couldn’t or wouldn’t afford. The weaker Yen also made their goods (exports) cheaper to American consumers (importers.) This combination, more cash for Japanese consumers and higher demand for their exports, produced solid first quarter growth.

But did QE fix their market?

There is much speculation about this. After all, lots of people want to believe QE is the answer for everything with no ill effects. Japan’s economy also has a long track record of stopping shortly after it starts. This makes modern day Japan an interesting case study. It shows how monetary policy affects consumer behavior and GDP while also proving two long lasting truths: when the value of currency goes down the price of gold rises; and inflation has nothing to do with it.

So why does the price of gold continue to go down in a weak global currency market?

Gold is experiencing a correction: a normal readjustment of price to value based on mass market opinion. Indeed, there are some real shenanigans going on in the investment markets, gold included. But there’s more to it than that. Gold is down 19% this year. That’s such a big number it has prompted some people to describe the move as a bear market, an end to an era, or a definite signal that the gold dynamic has changed forever.

Those people can’t see the forest through the trees.

Below is chart that can easily be misread. It is a one year chart of the Dow and gold using daily data points.

Those who have been following along know the true condition of this Market. They also know the chart above is telling a different story. It reflects a strong market economy in expansion mode that has a stable currency. But that’s not the case in today’s economy.

As explained in my book, the 15-51 Indicator is an above-average portfolio designed and constructed to indicate how stock market strength is performing. It does this reliably – and as of now, is free from establishment manipulation. For that reason it tells a truer picture of stock market reality. The chart below is the same as the one above except the 15-51 Indicator is shown.

As you can see, stock market strength is also experiencing a correction. Since their peaks last September 2012, gold is down 24% and the 15-51 Indicator is off 20%. The Dow Average has yet to correct. It’s up a scary 17% for the year.

But twelve months does not make a track record. Below is a three year look of these three market gauges.

Investing successfully is about achieving objectives, making money, and sleeping well at night. And the easiest way to do that is to build a better portfolio, have a long-term perspective, and stay in tune with "the market." That's the purpose of these blogs.

Corrections occur because marketable securities become either over-valued or under-valued. It’s normal behavior. And yes, each security and portfolio has their own unique personality.

To make investment decisions in the moment for the moment is a decision made for all the wrong reasons in an untimely manner. Better decisions are made when investors look longer term with a wider view. The three charts shown above are for one and three years’ time. The first two charts used daily data points, the third used weekly points, and the one below is a five year chart using monthly data points. GDP trend lines are also inserted.

Indeed, monthly data points smooth out the trend lines even more than weekly’s do. Here gold looks like it’s falling off a cliff and stock market strength looks to be building a base at this level. It’s also easy to see how average the Dow has performed since the crash. That is, of course, its goal. It looks to indicate the market (a.k.a. GDP).

To be sure, monetary tricks like QE and Operation Twist can alter certain anomalies in the modern global market. But if they actually fixed the market, 16 out of 17 Euro Zone countries wouldn’t be in recession, American growth would be strong, and China wouldn’t be sliding into recession.

To believe that the dynamic for gold has changed is to already have forgotten what was recently proven again in Japan: when currency depreciates the value of gold rises. To relegate gold’s value to dust is then to believe that the global currency market is stable, the global economy is strong, central governments are fiscally responsible, and the stock market is under-valued.

So not the case.

Corrections happen all the time. Monetary shell games don’t fix markets. And currency devaluation isn’t the way to prosperity.

Stay tuned…

The road to financial independence.™

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One False Move

May 13, 2013

This week the Dow Jones Industrial Average did what it couldn’t do last week – it found the courage to close over 15,000 points for the first time in history. The chart below compares the Dow’s performance to Real and Nominal GDP; a discussion follows.

In terms of today’s dollar, the DJIA has 500 more points to go before reaching its 2007 high-water mark, and then another 400 points to regain its core objective – Nominal GDP.

That brings an interesting question to light: Is it possible for the DJIA to be over-valued, and in fact irrationally exuberant, when it has not yet reached its objective (Nominal GDP)?

The short answer is: Yes, it is very possible. One quick reason is massive government spending programs that aren’t part of the stock market, like green energy "investments." While some of this activity is indeed reflected in GDP, companies like Solyndra and A123 battery aren’t likely to be included in the DJIA or S&P 500 any time soon. And when you consider the trillions being thrown around by governments these days, it’s easy to figure that GDP will never correlate exactly to major stock market indexes.

Reality is a lot of things – exactness isn’t one of them.

But that doesn’t mean there aren’t legitimate correlations to stock values. I have written many times about the value of stocks, economic reality, and manipulation of major market indexes (see: Market Manipulation). The action zone is an excellent technique to illustrate the current status of the Dow’s value based on its historical trading multiples.

The chart below is the same as the one shown above. The only difference is the entire action zone, the average range the DJIA has traded in the last 20 years, is shown. It includes three lines: a high (red), middle (yellow), and low (blue). See below.

A few things are easy to see. First, the Dow clearly trades above and below its historical averages all the time. The action zone lines, therefore, are not absolute limits, but a range of reason used to gauge whether "the market's" value is high or low. Such a view can also help investors identifiy appropriate points to buy and sell.

It is also clear that the Dow spends little time trading at the action zone mid-point. The yellow line indicates "fair value" in a stable economy. It is a point that the Dow should be trading around in an economy like this one - not a boom and not yet a bust.

Investing success is most easily had if the bulk of transactions are made within the range of reason that is the action zone. It defines the Dow’s current value based upon the historical averages it experienced during times of economic expansion, stability, and recession. The action zone is a tool to help investors make their own decisions consistent with their objectives.

So it's easy to see that the Dow is high here. But can it be considered irrationally exuberant when it is still 1,000 points away from the market average (Nominal GDP)?

That should be more clear in a moment, but first a reminder: Investment is not about buying at the lowest and selling at the highest. That’s speculative trading. Investing is about buying low and selling high. Investing is long-term, and trading is short-term.

The advice and commentary in these blogs are directed from a long-term investment perspective to long-term investors.

That said, few things are for certain: 1) Everyone is different, and each has their own risk tolerances, objectives, and timelines; 2) It’s easy to buy low and sell high if you can see them; 3) Patience is a virtue with success; 4) and most importantly, the best decisions to buy, sell, or hold are not inside some big box financial advisor or stock broker. They’re inside you.

No one cares more for your money than you do, and no one will do a better job managing you money than you will. This, of course, is not to mention that the Wall Street establishment is way too devious to play it straight. That's why they're always the last ones to tell you that the bottom will fall out of this stock market the first moment it can.

How can I be sure?

Because "the market" has no foundation, no fundamental basis for its current valuation. Again, the Dow is currently valued above the pinnacle of the tech boom when Real GDP growth was 6%. The current economy has no Real growth, no boom, and unlike in the Clinton ‘90s, fiscal governance is on a chartered course to bankruptcy.

Fiscal and monetary mismanagement do not make the economy and/or stock market stronger. And that’s what we have.

In fact, just this week Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said this, "Even if we can’t indentify, and I’m fully willing to admit that there will be times when we can’t identify a bubble or some other mis-evaluation, our hope is to make sure the system is sufficiently robust."

In other words, according to Bernanke the Fed might not see an asset bubble being created in the stock market, but that doesn’t matter. As long as he keeps pumping trillions of dollars of new cash into financial institutions, well, then he’s doing his job. It doesn’t matter that he’s handing that money to those who are creating the stock market bubble. No. The only thing that matters is keeping them "sufficiently robust."

I wonder how much Wall Street is paying him.

Of course Bernanke pointed out several of the obvious – that free money makes banks less efficient, more risky, and more prone to huge loss and bailout. For those reasons Bernanke established higher capital reserves for major banking institutions, and is looking for help in Congress to expand the Dodd-Frank financial regulation to impose even higher capital reserves for, as he says, "the largest, and most complex Wall Street firms." This effort is to make institutions that are too big to fail, "safer."

This from a guy who can’t see the asset bubble going on in the stock market right now; perhaps that is the "mis-evaluation" he was willing to admit to.

Not me. Stock market inflation is easy to see. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 15.4% so far this year, some 25% over "fair value", and the economy (GDP) has barely grown.

How is this possible?

Money – and to be specific, the money Bernanke is printing via quantitative easing and handing to the Wall Street establishment in order to make them "sufficiently robust."

And what do Wall Streeters do with that new money?

They invest it in well diversified portfolios (sound familiar?), which besides making them more money, enhances their capital reserves at the Fed’s request. This action artificially forces the DJIA and S&P 500 to inexplicable heights. New record highs are then used as advertisements by the Wall Street establishment to entice idle capital off the sidelines from skeptical investors. It’s their version of dangling a carrot in front of a horse.

Sadly, more evidence appeared this week that their campaign seems to be working. The Wall Street Journal reported that "small investors" are rediscovering margin debt to buy marketable securities that they don’t have the money to buy outright – "reaching levels not seen since the financial crisis." _{^{(See: Investors Rediscovering Margin Debt, May 9, 2013.)}}

And guess where Wall Street gets that money to lend investors?

Yes, the money from quantitative easing (QE) is being used to make banks and bankers rich, to inflate stock market indexes, and to entice "small" investors to bite off more than they should reasonably chew. This only adds more fuel (money) to the fire (an already inflated stock market.)

It’s like the Fed and Wall Street are working together to fleece the investment public. And even though Bernanke may think he’s smarter than to let that happen, no one knows how to manipulate the market and jibe the system more than the Wall Street establishment.

Caution to investors who trade patience for risk in this market.

To be "all-in" on this market – let alone 125% or 150% with margin debt – is nothing short of crazy, and that includes people 25 years of age. No age is a good time to buy into over-valued and fragile markets; certainly not without first acknowledging a few fair minded considerations.

Consider that the Dow sits 3,000 points above its normal average trade in a lackluster and slowing economy (a.k.a. asset bubble.) Consider also that central government spending must decrease by at least $1 trillion per year to be "balanced," a point in which revenues and expense are equal. Break-even government, or better yet surplus government, would reduce GDP and immediately shine a bright light on the fact that this stock market is extremely over-valued. Consider further that global Market conditions are deteriorating and the world seems ever close to another nasty warfront. And finally consider that it took the Dow almost 6 years to get back to where it was the last time irrational exuberance was in vogue.

To buy in here is an extremely risky proposition. Here’s the chart again.

Now, if you ask me if the Dow can keep going to 16,000 - I'd say yes, absolutely. But the higher it goes the faster it will drop when correction ensues.

And all that takes is one false move. Stay tuned for that.

In times like this asset allocation is key, cash is king, and 15-51 portfolios are better than anything Wall Street has to offer.

The road to financial independence.™

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Real Shenanigans

May 06, 2013

If the Wall Street establishment had any guts the Dow Jones Industrial Average would have blown past the 15,000 mark and ended the week comfortably above it, say 15.3 or 15.5. That would have made a huge statement that this Bull Run is legitimate and worth investing in, and not just another fluff and puff advertising campaign choreographed by the Street. But no, they didn't make that statement this week - even with a news cycle beneficial to their pitch.

Bull Market advertisers see this stock market move as totally justifiable. They read recent headlines in the Wall Street Journal and say, consumer spending is beating expectations, housing in finally rebounding, the jobs situation is improving – and the Fed stands ready to help even more. Below are samples of those WSJ headlines this week.

• Consumer Spending Rises

• Home Prices Score Highest Annual Gain Since 2006

• Job Gains Calm Slump Worries

• JP Morgan Under Regulatory Fire

• Fed Says Bond Purchases Could Rise or Fall

• ECB’s Draghi Opens Door to More Easing

With these promising headlines and the prospect of a seemingly endless supply of free new money, one would think that the Wall Street establishment would have gotten drunk on the Fed’s tab and belched the Dow passed the 15,000 mark. You’d think.

But no, that didn’t happen. Why?

Well, the consumer spending increase was just .2% in the most recently reported month. Economists (the "experts" in this story) were expecting zero change in consumer spending (a.k.a. no growth and no shrinkage). So to put it plainly, consumer spending is beating expectations, but only barely. It is growing, but only barely.

This kind of fractional move adds up to 2.4% annual growth for the largest segment of the market (GDP). Take inflation out of the equation and the economy is almost standing still.

Maybe it was this weakness that made Wall Street traders skittish about holding the Dow’s intraday high of 15,010 this week.

Just maybe.

There are so many people on and around Wall Street that believe housing is the key to economic turnaround – that somehow housing, or when people are comfortable "moving around" again, will remedy every Market woe.

So you’d think the recently reported 9% year over year advance in housing would be enough to propel the Dow up another measly 25 points by day’s end to symbolically close the week at 15,000.

But no, that didn’t happen either. Why?

First and foremost, the notion that housing will fix everything is just silly. Banks – the institutions – must be fixed before housing can correct (see: De-Institutionalize); and as JP Morgan Chase and former rock star CEO, Jamie Dimon, can attest: major systemic concerns remain deeply rooted in America’s biggest banks.

Housing remains ill because banks are still broken. Perhaps it was this grim reality that held Wall Street big-wigs from inflating the pot any more.

Or maybe it was basic mathematics. After all, the gains experienced in housing in 2006 came at the tail end of a housing boom that began in the late 1990’s – with 2000 through 2005 being huge years of rapid price increases (a.k.a. inflation.) The ‘06 gain bettered an already very high ’05 value.

But that’s not the case now. Housing gains realized this year are adding to a still very depressed 2012 value. In other words, this week’s housing news is no big deal.

Maybe it was this simple math that stifled the Dow from reaching 15,000 this week.

Perhaps.

But as we know, housing can’t possibly improve without an improving condition of employment. The unemployment rate ticked down ever so slightly this week, standing now at 7.5%. It has moved down .1% in three consecutive months recently. And while it might sound good that the unemployment rate is moving in the right direction, the broader employment gauge known as underemployment (U6) increased by an ironic .1% this month – and now stands at 13.9%. (see: Broader Unemployment Rate Ticks Up, WSJ online, May 3, 2013)

To translate that large percentage into people, consider that there are currently 20 million Americans looking for better work (i.e. they are working part-time and want full-time work) or they can’t find a job at all. Twenty million, that’s a lot of people.

Maybe it was the fact that so many consumers remain underemployed that scared the Street away from Dow 15,000 this week.

Or perhaps it was a hindsight tally of first quarter earnings that shows growth to be just 2.5% over last year, and according to corporate reports and announcements, the rest of fiscal year 2013 looks weaker than that. This news alone could have scared off some big time speculators this week.

But who knows for sure. Whether it was one of these specific reasons or combination of them all, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week coyly at 14,975, up 1.8%. Stock market strength continued to bounce with the 15-51 Indicator adding 5% in the week. It looks to be building a base where it is now. Technical traders call this a "triple-top." See the chart below.

That’s one year of activity using weekly data points, and there is little question that the Dow and the S&P 500 (not shown) are high at these levels. They are at all-time highs, after all. This is not uncommon. Stock values leap over fundamentals all the time. That’s not really the important point here. What is important to successful investing is to understand the nature and extent of stock market inflation when it occurs.

The action zone is a mechanism I use to illustrate those points. The action zone high can be considered the line of "irrational exuberance." The Dow is clearly trading there. The 15-51 Indicator was up there in September but has corrected, and now resides around "fair value" (the action zone midpoint) – according to this chart’s timeframe. More on that in a second.

Using history as a guide, right now the DJIA is trading at a market multiple higher than any point in the last 20 years. In fact, the last time the Dow was even close to this valuation was 1999 – the pinnacle of the tech-boom.

This economy is nothing like that one. There is no bona fide boom, unemployment is too high, consumers are stressed, and fiscal governance is in major deficit. That economy was growing 5% in Real terms. This one is standing still.

I have one more chart to show you. It begins in 2010, which is about time the broader stock markets reached "fair value." It has a little more than three years of activity with weekly data points. Take a look.

From this view it’s easy to see that the 15-51 strength Indicator is still "irrationally exuberant." So when a broader market correction ensues the 15-51i will again slip in value. That’s the time to buy it. This buying opportunity will be just as easy to identify as the high selling point was in September (see: Strength Hits All-Time High, Again).

That’s the best thing about the 15-51 method. When you know exactly how your portfolio is built, you know when it is high (time to sell) and when it is low (time to buy). Add this to an understanding of Market conditions and where broader market stock values are in their cycle, and what you have is a winning recipe for investment success.

That’s the Lose Your Broker way.

The pertinent question to ask yourself when making investment decisions right now is this: Is stock market activity based on economic expansion and vitality, or Wall Street shenanigans – is it Real, or is it irrational exuberance?

Answer: To price today’s "market" above the tech-boom’s climax can be called nothing short of shenanigans -- in Real terms.

Stay tuned…

The road to financial independence.™

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The Nature of the Beast

Apr 28, 2013

Gold bounced this week as traders covered shorts and pushed gold 8% over its April 15, 2013 low. That’s the story this week.

Aided by rumor, pomp and circumstance, traders create volatility by placing huge bets on future movements of securities. Recently at record highs, short activity for gold has been well publicized. (Shorting is the investment process in reverse, it’s selling high and then buying low – in that order.) The Wall Street establishment not only coordinates this activity (massive gold shorts) but actually advertises it on CNBC, their favorite propaganda network. They do so to fuel the fervor of speculative trading – to create wild swings in price.

Traders thrive on volatility.

It was just a few weeks ago that rumors surfaced about the Federal Reserve ceasing QE activity. That policy move, it was speculated, would strengthen the U.S. dollar and hurt the advance of gold. As such, gold dropped dramatically.

I threw cold water on the idea at the time, posing the question: Why would the Fed change course now with high unemployment and low inflation? It just doesn’t make any sense and not consistent with this Federal Reserve.

In fact, investment markets, including gold, remain extremely manipulated. Along with gold, stock market strength jumped 4% this week while the Dow Average advanced just 1%. See the chart below.

The pertinent question for investors right now is: Where is the Dow in its cycle?—Is it mirroring the 15-51 Indicator’s September 20 trend or is it at the September 5th point?

I’m not exactly sure of the answer. While uncertainty is not uncommon in times like these, long-term investors who only need to buy low and sell high need not be overly concerned about identifying tops and bottoms (highest and lowest points of valuation). That is not required for successful investment. To put it another way, market timing is not required for making large sums of money in the stock market. Understanding cycles of valuation, however, make your investment decisions more timely and much more profitable.

Patience comes naturally with a long-term investment view. Today, tomorrow, and next week mean very little in the scope of a five or ten year plan. All the advice in these blogs is directed from a long-term perspective. From this angle, the Dow is high indeed, but it may not be at its highest point before correction commences. The 15-51 Indicator is 24% off its September 20^_th all-time high, but it may not be at its lowest point because an unavoidable "market" sell-off would produce a lower valuation.

Gold is volatile, and will get more so if for no other reason than it is extremely difficult to answer the question: What is the fair value of gold? Like all raw commodities, there is no operating unit for gold, no gross margins, no balance sheet, and no P/E multiples. Its value is determined strictly by the laws of Supply and Demand.

As mentioned, gold is a money hedge; and when the value of money depreciates the value of gold rises, and vice versa. The perception of need drives gold.

The 2008 market crash is a great example of this. As we know, it resulted from the "financial crisis" which brought about massive and broad-based currency debasing. Remember, the entire U.S. banking system ran out of cash back then – and so did the Federal Reserve. As a result, the Fed ramped up the printing presses and produced an unprecedented amount of new currency which it infused into the banking system through programs like TARP and QE. This dramatically diminished the perception of monetary worth – and gold exploded. See the chart below.

Gold bottomed-out several months before stocks did in late ’08 and recovered faster and much more potently than stocks in ’09. Gold’s dominance has continued because the environment for money has been persistently bad, with trillions of newly printed dollars entering the market every year since the crash.

Corrections happen all the time, and when markets are manipulated (like record gold short positions and subsequent coverings) they seem to happen out of the blue and for little logical reason. That’s the nature of the beast.

Caution to those who let gold’s recent reset prompt them to place additional capital into stocks. That would be succumbing to said beast.

Stay tuned…

The road to financial independence.™

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Market Manipulation

Apr 19, 2013

I’m hearing more and more confusion about the investment markets these days. The stock market won’t down, some say, and gold is going the wrong way. What’s going on?

Admittedly, if you have to make money in this market your situation gets much harder. Most of your money should have been made when it was easy. Now it’s tough. The markets are a mess and make little rational sense. Gold should be going up and "the market" should be going down. But the opposite is happening. See below.

An ill effect of QE is the gross manipulation of widely followed market indexes like the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Wall Street establishment manipulates the Dow and S&P to confuse investors with mixed signals; they do so to lure idle capital into shark infested waters, so they can feed off the carnage.

I caution you not to bite.

Market manipulation and investor confusion are major tactics Wall Street has employed for a very long time. They do it all the time, and they're doing it right now. (see my book for details.)

That’s why I tell people to follow my blogs and the 15-51 Indicator. Because it’s not yet widely followed by the Wall Street establishment, there is very little market manipulation in the 15-51i. That’s the reason it tells a completely different story than the DJIA -- and a much truer picture of Market reality. Below is the same chart as the above but with the 15-51 Indicator in it.

Strength is softening because growth is weakening – which started with a surprisingly low fourth quarter 2012 growth rate (just +.4% during the Christmas quarter.) The 15-51 Indicator predicted that softness in September when in began its correction. Those who have read my book know how the 15-51 Indicator is built, that it is an above-average portfolio designed to outpeform the Dow Jones portfolio over the long-term. And now it is proving to be the leading stock market indicator, as the Dow is clearly following its path seven months in arrears.

Based on Market fundamentals, stocks should be going down (like the 15-51 Indicator is) and gold should be rising. The 15-51 Indicator is ahead of the game. But gold is down sharply again this week. Why?

I hate to say it, and I’m not suggesting it’s 100% of the reason for gold’s decline, but now with a wide variety of gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) the price of gold is manipulated now more than ever before. ETF’s make shorting gold easier, and therefore, open to more people (increased demand). This is probably the reason short positions for gold are at record highs.

Manipulation – it’s a bigger factor than most consider.

Now I understand that a slowing economy generally reduces demand for metals used in the production of goods, like copper, silver – and gold for jewelry. I get that. But gold is down 12% in the last two weeks in what can be considered nothing short of an awful investment environment, as highlighted by these headlines from this week’s news:

• Retail Sales Fall as Consumers Stick to Essentials

• China GDP Growth Slows

• GE Warns of Europe Weakness

• IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecasts

• Fitch Downgrades U.K. Rating

The most important element to making investment decisions is to make them for the right reasons and to base those decisions on what’s actually happening in the marketplace. (Let me know if you need help with this.)

I understand how easy it is to question yourself and/or your method when you see "the market" and gold doing something they shouldn’t be doing. It’s easy to think you’ve missed a piece to the puzzle that would have prompted you to buy into the Dow at 13,000 – a move that would have earned you 12% in just a few months.

Don’t persecute yourself. That piece of the puzzle doesn’t exist. Buying into Dow 13,000 is a pure gamble, total speculation. That's not investment. Investing is easy and requires no luck. Market timing demands luck because it is not based on Market fundamentals, which investors rely on to make long-term decisions.

The global economy is shrinking and the fiscal position of sovereign states continues to weaken. These conditions are bad for stocks and good for gold.

Mass market manipulation is only temporary; and when "the market" corrects – so will gold.

Stay tuned…

The road to financial independence.™

# # # # #

To my friends in Boston and members of the American family that recently suffered from yet another mindless act of evil -- PEACE, LOVE, and JUSTICE...Godspeed!

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